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Rawson
House Rhetoric The easy answer is "No way!" It's not that we don't want to predict the future -- far from it. We yearn to predict, because decision-making depends on accurate predictions. But, we grudgingly admit that here in 1999, we have little idea what tomorrow's headlines will be. Even the throw of a dart (that is, random selection) has been shown to be a better predictor of a variable such as the stock market than professional forecasters, even with computer modeling. Still, I'm going to take the contrarian view. I believe predicting can be done with at least some accuracy about at least some aspects of the future. To do so, we must use a special tool, i.e. the history of technology. A visit to Westville, a museum dedicated to the history of technology, helps you imagine what technology may be like in the future. "An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible" Consider for the moment the great inventions of the Nineteenth Century -- locomotive, steamship, camera and telegraph. These were the inventions which transformed life in the second half of the century. Anyone who understood these inventions in 1850 could have imagined the enormous impact they would have by 1900. Likewise, between 1850 and 1900, humankind invented the automobile, the telephone, the phonograph, and the theory of evolution. These were the advances which in turn characterized change (predictably!) in the first quarter of the Twentieth Century. By
World War I, the airplane, radio, plastics and quantum theory had been
invented. It is no surprise that these ideas revolutionized things by
World War II. In the same way, the advances in technology between 1918
and 1940 also began revolutions by the end of WWII -- genes, relativity,
TV, hormones, rockets and radars. By 1960, satellites, transistors, lasers,
antibiotics and spaceships had been added to the inventory. We can see
these now-standard wonders transforming our own lives today. Looking to the Future (From 1958) The great science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke took this game an additional step. He wrote the now-classic book of predictions in 1958 called Profiles of the Future, a work studied by scientists and historians even today. Clarke's predictions for 1960 - 2000 missed the mark in some ways -- he predicted that planetary colonization would take place by now -- hence, his book, 2001: A Space Odyssey. Clarke mainly seems, however, to have erred only in terms of when, not whether. At the cusp of a new century, I thought you might enjoy reading a few things Clarke predicted in 1958. Because part of Clarke's timetable has passed, you can get a good look at how my model for predicting has worked so far and may still work in the right hands: Lunar landing -- 1970. Fusion power -- 1985 (still elusive). Global library (is this the Internet?) -- 2005. Weather control -- 2015. Control of heredity -- 2020. Contact with extraterrestrials -- 2032. Gravity control -- 2050. Suspended animation -- 2050. Artificial life -- 2068. Near light speeds -- 2077. Matter transmitters -- 2090. Replicators -- 2090. Immortality -- 2095. Remember, Westville is your baseline in 1999 for imagining such things for the future. In the year 2095, just think how important Westville Village will be to understanding the impact of any one of Clarke's predictions that may have come true. Godspeed
to all of you for the safe celebration of the birth of this exciting New
Millennium.
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